Introduction
In this series of articles, which started with my experience at a BBQ in 2018, we have looked at automated driving vehicles (ADVs) in general but in particular at:
- Facts vs. opinions
- How an ADV drives compared to a human
- Life and death decisions have to be made
- How an ADV actually works through path planning
- The range of sensors needed so the machine can sense the environment and then make a decision
- Why the AI element of an ADV is essential to safe operation.
In this final part I want to think about some of the important issues for the repair and service industry. Two key points come to mind: Firstly, the need to invest (again) to keep up with technological changes, and secondly, the potential reduction in the amount of work needing to be done.
To end it all, I will be at yet another BBQ, in the future…
Investing to keep up
Our trade has always required reinvestment to keep up with technology changes. Arguably the current change to EVs and the near future change to connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) is nothing new. I agree that the idea of change is nothing new, but I think this time it is more radical.
Can we afford not to keep up? Well, yes! There will always be a long period where there are plenty of older cars that need service or repair. Your business or your work could, after a while, specialise in older vehicles – and then even more so as they become rarer. But, and it is a big but, the market share available to you will definitely shrink. How many carburettor specialists are needed now for example?
To keep up we will, for example, need to keep investing in the latest diagnostic kit, and equipment for software updates. But then most of us are probably doing this anyway. Perhaps the biggest difference is that more investment will be needed in training.
It is very likely that things like the IMI TechSafe license will become mandatory. This is for those working on high voltage, systems with cybersecurity implications and those related to automated driving and ADAS. Training and qualifications will therefore be essential. Prepare now and make it an investment, not a cost.
Reduced parts, reduced servicing, reduced workforce
I have watched several presentations recently (doing my own CPD) about EVs and CAVs by Bosch and other key players. There seems to be a consensus that the number of parts and associated servicing work on a modern connected EV would reduce by a factor of about three. Once automated driving really becomes embedded, it is very likely that the number of accidents will reduce, so there will be a reduction in body repair and refinishing work. These things will have huge implications for our industry and the number of people needed.
But, will the increase in the levels of technology provide some jobs? It is possible. After an accident for example, EV systems will need repairing, driver assistance systems will need calibrating and software will need updating.
One thing is certain, we will become fewer in number. Let’s just hope the demand for my textbooks stays the same…!
Barbeque (2040)
I started the first article in this series by sharing an opinion expressed to me, by a financial expert, at a barbeque in 2018. He told me autonomous cars were only a year or two away. I disagreed and said they were at least 12 years away.
I then mentioned my experience at a similar event in 2030 and how by coincidence, 12 years later, I met the same chap! He told me that it would be a while before autonomous cars really caught on. I disagreed, tapped my phone and a few minutes later one turned up and took me home.
Now here we are barbequing again in 2040 (the G8Turing level AI systems developed so fast time travel became possible). We can therefore look back with hindsight and see which garages reacted to the changes and which didn’t. After some discussion it was agreed that there is a very strong correlation between those that invested and those that survived.
Shortly after this my car turned up without me asking as it knew I wanted to go home. A quick retina scan and we were on our way.